{
 "experiment": "anti_transfer_matrix",
 "model": "Qwen2.5-1.5B",
 "EXPLORATORY": true,
 "alpha": 0.6,
 "depth": 0.714,
 "boot": 2000,
 "regimes": {
  "TruthfulQA": "trap",
  "ARC-Challenge": "ordinary",
  "OpenBookQA": "ordinary",
  "MMLU": "ordinary"
 },
 "n_ev_wrong": {
  "TruthfulQA": 47,
  "ARC-Challenge": 20,
  "OpenBookQA": 12,
  "MMLU": 18
 },
 "matrix_net_src_to_tgt": {
  "TruthfulQA": {
   "TruthfulQA": {
    "net": -0.25,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.25,
    "n_wrong": 47,
    "n_corr": 20,
    "CI95": [
     -0.45,
     -0.05
    ]
   },
   "ARC-Challenge": {
    "net": -0.2727,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.2727,
    "n_wrong": 20,
    "n_corr": 77,
    "CI95": [
     -0.3766,
     -0.1818
    ]
   },
   "OpenBookQA": {
    "net": -0.1803,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.1803,
    "n_wrong": 12,
    "n_corr": 61,
    "CI95": [
     -0.2787,
     -0.0984
    ]
   },
   "MMLU": {
    "net": -0.2453,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.2453,
    "n_wrong": 18,
    "n_corr": 53,
    "CI95": [
     -0.3585,
     -0.1321
    ]
   }
  },
  "ARC-Challenge": {
   "TruthfulQA": {
    "net": -0.95,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.95,
    "n_wrong": 47,
    "n_corr": 20,
    "CI95": [
     -1.0,
     -0.85
    ]
   },
   "ARC-Challenge": {
    "net": -0.6494,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.6494,
    "n_wrong": 20,
    "n_corr": 77,
    "CI95": [
     -0.7532,
     -0.5455
    ]
   },
   "OpenBookQA": {
    "net": -0.7869,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.7869,
    "n_wrong": 12,
    "n_corr": 61,
    "CI95": [
     -0.8852,
     -0.6885
    ]
   },
   "MMLU": {
    "net": -0.717,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.717,
    "n_wrong": 18,
    "n_corr": 53,
    "CI95": [
     -0.8302,
     -0.5849
    ]
   }
  },
  "OpenBookQA": {
   "TruthfulQA": {
    "net": -1.0,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 1.0,
    "n_wrong": 47,
    "n_corr": 20,
    "CI95": [
     -1.0,
     -1.0
    ]
   },
   "ARC-Challenge": {
    "net": -1.0,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 1.0,
    "n_wrong": 20,
    "n_corr": 77,
    "CI95": [
     -1.0,
     -1.0
    ]
   },
   "OpenBookQA": {
    "net": -1.0,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 1.0,
    "n_wrong": 12,
    "n_corr": 61,
    "CI95": [
     -1.0,
     -1.0
    ]
   },
   "MMLU": {
    "net": -1.0,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 1.0,
    "n_wrong": 18,
    "n_corr": 53,
    "CI95": [
     -1.0,
     -1.0
    ]
   }
  },
  "MMLU": {
   "TruthfulQA": {
    "net": -0.25,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.25,
    "n_wrong": 47,
    "n_corr": 20,
    "CI95": [
     -0.45,
     -0.1
    ]
   },
   "ARC-Challenge": {
    "net": -0.5325,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.5325,
    "n_wrong": 20,
    "n_corr": 77,
    "CI95": [
     -0.6364,
     -0.4156
    ]
   },
   "OpenBookQA": {
    "net": -0.2295,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.2295,
    "n_wrong": 12,
    "n_corr": 61,
    "CI95": [
     -0.3443,
     -0.1307
    ]
   },
   "MMLU": {
    "net": -0.5283,
    "rescue": 0.0,
    "damage": 0.5283,
    "n_wrong": 18,
    "n_corr": 53,
    "CI95": [
     -0.6604,
     -0.3962
    ]
   }
  }
 },
 "random_floor": {
  "TruthfulQA": {
   "net": -0.9,
   "rescue": 0.0,
   "damage": 0.9,
   "n_wrong": 47,
   "n_corr": 20,
   "CI95": [
    -1.0,
    -0.75
   ]
  },
  "ARC-Challenge": {
   "net": -0.4805,
   "rescue": 0.0,
   "damage": 0.4805,
   "n_wrong": 20,
   "n_corr": 77,
   "CI95": [
    -0.5974,
    -0.3766
   ]
  },
  "OpenBookQA": {
   "net": -0.7541,
   "rescue": 0.0,
   "damage": 0.7541,
   "n_wrong": 12,
   "n_corr": 61,
   "CI95": [
    -0.8525,
    -0.6393
   ]
  },
  "MMLU": {
   "net": -0.7358,
   "rescue": 0.0,
   "damage": 0.7358,
   "n_wrong": 18,
   "n_corr": 53,
   "CI95": [
    -0.8491,
    -0.6038
   ]
  }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
  "ordinary_to_ordinary_nets": [
   -0.7869,
   -0.717,
   -1.0,
   -1.0,
   -0.5325,
   -0.2295
  ],
  "trap_to_ordinary_nets": [
   -0.2727,
   -0.1803,
   -0.2453
  ],
  "ordinary_transfers": false,
  "trap_anti_transfers": true
 },
 "verdict_tag": "STYLE-CONFOUND (anti-transfer DOWNGRADED)",
 "VERDICT": "Ordinary axes do NOT transfer to other ordinary datasets (within-regime cross-dataset net median -0.752; no cell CI>0) -> every axis is dataset/style-specific. The -8.7pp is the Marin style confound [LIT-23], not two opposite causal regimes. DOWNGRADE the anti-transfer claim; do NOT make it the paper centerpiece. (Honest null.)",
 "elapsed_s": 55.0
}